Summer 2009, numismatic musings
Stability is a great but reluctant economic friend for those of us whose passions tend toward these little bits of metal that have helped define two and a half millennia of human exchange. The rise and fall of markets, of value and even of nations is recorded in coinage--its design, minting standards, metal content and spread around a country or a continent.
The past year has been an economic roller coaster ride. For collectors, the value of the US dollar has gone from very weak ($2 to the British pound) to very strong ($1.35 to the British pound) and back to $1.60+ to the pound. Fluctuations against other currencies have not been far behind. Gold has bounced around with 25% swings in value as well over the same period. The result is that it is hard to know what to pay for things.
The reduction in the availability of credit and the uncertainty of employment has had an impact on the coin market. Dealers are a very important part of numismatics and uncertainty about potential sales coupled with restrictions on their capacity to borrow curtails their ability to act in the market place whether it be buying by private treaty or in the auction sale room. This situation is similar to the strictures many collectors feel as well.
The upshot of all this is that middling material, interesting and historic as it may be, commands lower prices than a year or two ago when everything seemed to be flying high. Exceptional material operates by somewhat different rules. The numismatic "buzz" is that top quality and highly desirable material is not coming onto the market. This seems to be a result of owners hanging on to choice material rather than offering it in an uncertain market. Great coins are often good hedges against market swings so it is as good a place as any to store value
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Strong prices for the rare, unusual and important are not surprising. An exceptional collection of modern (i.e. George III and onward) silver coinage commanded exceptional prices in a February 2009 auction. Some of the European auctions of ancient coins have seen huge prices for the best material.
The estimates I am developing for our next sale reflect this dual reality--a wider spread between the average and the exceptional. In a sense, this is a case of 'twas ever thus.' From time to time I have heard reminiscences about the "old days of collecting" where rarity was rated first and condition second. But when you review the most important sales of the late 18th and early 19th century, you see that those collectors who could afford it sought out the best possible examples and paid the price. In the past, the spread between the finest and the average was perhaps not as great as now, but it has always been a factor in the value of coins. Catalogs of values still tend to underrate the value of the choicest material but market prices tell the tale.
Where to go with all this? It is a great time for collectors seeking interesting and pleasing coins with a bit of wear or a bit of unevenness in the strike or the flan or something else that keeps it from the top rank. The increased strength of the dollar and the slower market have brought prices down. For those seeking only the finest, there are opportunities available--it is simply a question of staying alert to opportunity.
By the way, I had the opportunity recently to buy a choice run of tokens, primarily Spence issues. You will see many of these in our next auction but many are for sale now. Please inquire if this is an area you pursue.
Thanks for your interest. If you want to see coins we offer on the internet, visit our store at VCoins. Otherwise, watch for our next catalog this fall. Or get in touch if there is something in particular we can help with.
Allan Davisson, June 2009
